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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Stock Farmer who wrote (46169)	9/4/2001 12:21:50 AM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Your reference to day after quarterbacking is puzzling. I can't imagine why. A wild fluctuation like the one we have just been through provides a ripe opportunity for retroactive examples such as you have cited. But, who among us knew that while it was happening? Sure, advisor XYZ was calling it right, if one puts the right time frame on things, but this is the same advisor, generally, who would have missed a great deal of prior run up and who is probably busy predicting deeper gloom ahead, when this might well be a bottom for all any of us can know. Look back over this thread and find the number of times that people have said, "I bought X and almost sold at such and such a time, but if I had I would have lost such and such". It is just as easy for formulas to deprive you of gain as for them to save you from loss. In fact, while there is a lot of introspection and questioning going on in this thread in the wake of the recent ups and downs, one of the frequent statement I believe I have seen is "I don't know how to make these timing decisions and I question whether anyone does". Volitility can be just as much your friend as your enemy.

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