UF. A fair challenge: "How about offering some links to posts you made in 1Q00 that establishes you were capable of doing so.
And if you were, why didn't you take the rational approach and short the Gorillas?".
But no problem. If I can dish out the posting history of others, I had better be able to take it.
It's public anyway.
I did not make any posts in 1Q00. I was running silently with the lemmings and in truth I hadn't really learned my lesson. In 2Q00, along with many people, I experienced a wonderful sinking paper-worth feeling. Still I lurked and posted only to PM. A few of us merely re-evaluated our positions and changed them. In PM exchanges. I broke from my public silence with my first substantive post on SI early in July of 2000 after years of lurking.
Why did I wait so long to post, and why such an oblique approach? Well, when one is running with the crowd, why bother posting. I had a job that kept me busy enough, and I was using SI as an information gathering tool and most of what I wanted to say a lot of others were saying far better than I ever could.
Until my opinion diverged from the crowd. And then too I hesitated offering it. But this time because I watched the reception that others with my opinion were getting and it was difficult to take. Not harsh disagreement about facts about the company, but slander behind the backs about the posters themselves.
Do you remember those days? I do. And just to be sure I reread from the threads in June/July/August of 2000. You might find it interesting. Do you remember posting stuff like this about folks who had a much longer posting history than me?
Message 13906921
or this
Message 14028966
Just an example. There's more where that came from. I reference your own posts only because turnabout is fair play. I offer up in balance that you were one of the gentle folks and that such stuff from you was rarer and milder than it was from many others. Folks only need to troll around and see that neither bulls nor bears were giving anyone any quarter. And this is the environment in which I made my decision.
I did not publicly post the formation of my thinking back then because I was intimidated into silence.
Perhaps I was not so self secure back then as I am now. I mean, there I was with a different view than 90% of SI. Kind of hard to hold convictions.
Nevertheless, I did break silence on July 11 with Message 14050792 Suggesting, if you understand my trepidation, that cries of "cliff cliff" were not falling on deaf ears.
On July 27 (I think) I met with my broker and over a few days we liquidated the vast majority of my tech holdings.
On Aug 1, with a decision rather irrevocably under my belt I worked up the courage to post this (which took a CP): Message 14142112 By their replies, several people got the real drift between the words designed not to offend, which was "this price is insane".
And it goes on from there. Although I have become more direct and pointed with time.
My posting has been mostly to the Cisco thread, because it is an icon of the tech genre. So if this offering is not enough for you, I invite you to read from that post onwards if you want to get more of a flavor of me. I've been pretty regular there. Another of the threads on which I post less frequently is the collapse thread. And I follow the CFZ religiously, and I lurked the porch and MDD and this and several dozen stock specific threads. And I go back and forth with pm a fair bit too.
Yes, UF, I have acted on my convictions, and my record on SI is at least consistent in this regard.
So in short, while most of the threads were laughing at the possibility of NASD at 2500 I was making preparations and informing folks. I am merely offering up that the thinking that served me well back then looks like it will still serve me well today. And could serve others well.
Which determination I make in real time. And around which swung the majority of my net worth. I have not just taken my toys and gone home. I continue to post, because I think a bottom will be put in and there will be a time to get back in again. And I think the Gorillas will be the right ones to go back into.
Rest assured I will signal my actions come that day. Meanwhile I will continue to offer up my observations - e.g. why I am not buying in. kind of like a counterpoint. I was once bullish, am now bearish. Hope to be bullish not too long from now. My opinion varies with the market, not the other way around.
Which leaves only your final question: And if you were, why didn't you take the rational approach and short the Gorillas?
Well, the truth is that I do not like to short a stock. It smacks to me of betting against someone trying to do their best. I would rather root for winners than bet against losers. So I only take long positions. I am thinking that it might be wise to revise this sentimental notion of fair play for enhanced profit opportunity, but so far my opportunities to profit have been good enough for me.
Yes, this is irrational. No big deal.
John. |
