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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 145.00+2.0%Jan 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: long-gone who wrote (75847)9/4/2001 8:54:29 AM
From: Don Rohner  Read Replies (2) of 116912
 
Layman's View of the Rebate:

First off I'm a G.Bush backer so what I'm about to say is not intended as a political attack. This is the first time I've posted on this board but have read it faithfully for over 5 years and appreciate the give and take.

I do not believe the tax cut will do much to get our economy going but it will go into the sink hole know as the world economy. Twenty years ago when such a tax reduction occurred we could count on a multiplier effect of many multiples the amount of the cut and therefore the tax cut would come back to the government as the taxed portion of this multiplier.

However today things are different; we purchase a greater percent from overseas. As an example if on average the tax rebate is $600 and everyone and does there patriotic duty and spends it. Then the following multipliers will occur (assuming no tax with each purchase, this means the following is even worse):

25% goes overseas with each purchase multiplier will be 3X
50% goes overseas with each purchase multiplier will be 1X

Unfortunately we are in a world where first off people are attempting to get out of debt therefore the first assumption will force the amount going into the system to be lower. Second considering that the world economy is in trouble, and that they are stingy in buying foreign goods, very little of the money used to purchase from overseas will ever come back to the US economy to help the multiplier.

So unfortunately in my opinion this tax cut will do little to effect the US economy.

Just a humble opinion and comments?
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