re: "TueSept 4 INTC [video] Expect a Warning from Intel [6.5 min] - Yahoo FinanceVision"
It's Dan Niles being interviewed re: his lower expectations for this year and next. He states that he expects Intel to at least update guidance to the lower end of their original Q3 guidance.
BTW, if Intel is in fact able to keep the clockrate/performance distance between themselves and AMD (which I believe they can), then they could weather this slowdown very easily. The analysts like to claim that the PC and uPs are commodities. I'd agree the PC is and has been for many years, that's why margin is always thin, but the uP, and specifically Intel's uP is not a commodity today, and any pressure to become a commodity is lessening as they extend their performance lead. Intel has capacity to build CPUs for most if not all the demand in the world, while AMD is at least 2 speeds below and has architectural disadvantages, process technology disadvantages and capacity disadvantages (both amount and type) to overcome before they can compete. At the same time Intel continues to invest in R&D and CAP.
Yes we have a global slowdown and we don’t know when it will end, but in the meantime, PC/Systems manufacturers will be scrambling to one up their competition… this one-upmanship should include offering more features/performance for less (I see more MHz as one thing they will push) and with Intel having a substantial and growing performance gap, they can more effectively manage the mix of speeds with there customers with less fear of AMD. Managing the mix effectively is a very good way to get dollars to the bottom line. Those who fear that Intel is introducing new CPUs at historically low introduction prices need to realize that in the past those new speeds has very low volume. If Intel is yielding well to the higher speeds, then the low price is justified to drive volume and in effect drive margins up. If Intel has a $800 chip that accounted for 1-3% of the volume and could raise that volume to 15% of the volume at $400, then it makes sense to drop the price if they have the yield.
So yes a global slowdown sucks, but it sucks less for Intel then it does for the system manufactures and it sucks a hell of a lot more for AMD.
Soybeans and oil and DRAMS are commodities. Intel’s Pentium IV is far from being one.
NITT |
