Tom,
I'll take that bet <g>, or at least question your order of magnitude. The market dropped over 22% in one day in October 1987.
1300 is a big longshot, but not 100,000 to 1. I think there's enough weirdness in the air, and enough air in the stocks (chips anyone?) to allow the possibility of a big collapse.
It's not directly comparable, but QAVXY, Dec 25 puts on QQQ, which is currently about 35.50, are .40 bid, .45 ask. Longshots are always high, but even Black-Scholes thinks these are worth .16, at recent volatility of 42%. And Black-Scholes is based on a (log)normal distribution, whereas many scientists think the stock market is a "chaotic" process, with a much wilder distribution.
Tom, your predictions on the market have been really good, based on the logic of the warning & earning seasons, the poor results of the tech companies, etc., but sometimes logic takes a holiday. I have to fade that 100K. <g>
Doc |
