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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Ilaine who wrote (8201)9/5/2001 11:11:32 AM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (3) of 74559
 
Hi CB, Yes, I like RPN calculator and only use HP 12C that I have owned since 1980.

On HWP+CPQ, it is just possible that <<printers, scanners>> will revert back to the engine maker (Canon) who actually makes the complicated bits for HWP produsts; <<fax machines>> will revert to Ricoh, Sharp and Kyocera; and <<calculators or PDAs>> will be split between Legend, Sony and Casio. HWP may have to revert back to oscilloscopes. In any case, the growth is gone, soon to be followed by the the vision, dream, hype, and finally, valuation.

Servers? By HWP+CPQ announcing the merger/buyout and thus giving still tough and definitely merciless competitors a window of opportunity to attack with gusto, HWP+CPQ have sealed their now joint fate to lose critical residual momentum in that 'space'.

If I were IBM or Dell, I would attempt to delay the implementation of the merger, wear down the HWP+CPQ staff morale, rifle their customers (CIOs) with tales of doom, and then, only then, let the merger happen, only to hit the rock of cultural clash and the sandbar merger chaos.

Well, you know I am simply marking time with these visions of doom. Anything can happen in our current environment, and in any case, the next abacadabra may not involve HWP+CPQ.

As a measure of market motivation, the Asian suppliers to HWP and CPQ got bid up yesterday, without reason and lacking rationality, because we know at least 25% of these suppliers will be removed from the supply chain. No, the foam is still thick, hype still strong, and the punishment may thus still be ahead of us.

Chugs, Jay
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