MT--
You wrote, "I would suggest that capitulation in the usual sense may not occur. There have been repeated and painful sell-offs in Oracle for example, each taking out another level of investor. Additionally if we have entered a period of prolonged bear market unlike anything we've seen in decades, it may well be happening in a rather more methodical manner. Capitulations occur in corrections. Could it be this is not a correction?"
Interesting thoughts, from a careful investor. This is what I mean by not proposing, "It's different this time," (which will be the death rattle of those who sell last in this final downward spiral) but rather asking, "How is it different this time?"
But in some ways I think we can count on the old rules, including a true capitulation. Maybe not a Black Monday or Blue Thursday, but a time will come when this market will have stung so many so hard that the collective undiscovered conscience forged in the smithy of the soul turns on equities, vowing never to type 2 or 3 or 4 capital letters together again next to the "QUOTES" button, or to call up a stock thread, etc.
We will have a capitulation, when all the weak hands (who now believe they're the strong hands) have been shaken out, when the stocks are too low for even the most reckless to try to short (INTC at 12?) and all that are left are the thin line of buyers. I expect to be standing in that line.
"A prolonged bear market unlike . . . ?" No, I don't think so, but the leaders of the next bull won't be names we're thinking of now. But that won't matter. Tripling your investments in, say, JDSU from 3 to 9 will be a common occurrence for those left standing with bullets and cash between Halloween and Xmas.
JimP--my toes are tired, I was on them all spring. I think I'll get a pedicure until the ghoulish season. You be on your toes for both of us, compadre?
Kb |
