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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: cnyndwllr who wrote (7425)9/5/2001 3:11:28 PM
From: MetalTrader  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
What does frighten me is really the aftermath of the anticipated bounce. And this does not reflect my view but rather a concern. If the economic outlook of working off the excesses of the past few (or not so few) years should remain less than robust, what then? If equity markets have entered an extended period of retrenchment, the periods of net positive investment will be compressed and less than stellar.

There is no etched in granite rule which says that bonds for example cannot outperform equities for an extended period. Simple demographics will bias economic growth to the upside, but I fear that serious money, not us, will take a longer term more negative view toward the equity markets. If you look at a longer term chart of the S&P index for example, the "newtonians" (a body in motion remains in motion in the same direction) see a gaping hole beneath the current level down to a longer term trendline. I am concerned that the medium term investment bias for the next few years could remain bearish toward equities. We could have periods, such as we had this spring when the market is oversold and rebounds to the upper limits of a downtrend but the downtrend remain intact. Right now for example I see the S&P in the middle of its trend with a hundred pts either way, not altering that trend. If you flipped the S&P upside down you would probably be a buyer of it, but rightside up, shouldn't one be a seller?

mt
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