I'm seeing references to today being "capitulation", a "successful retest" of the April lows. LOL! People don't even have a freaking concept of what capitulation means any more. It takes more than four hours of heavy selling to call it capitulation, for Pete's sake!
Even in the context of the previous bull market, we'd have DAYS on end where the leading techs would go down double-digit percentages - like three days in a row. Just no bids. A quick peek at the most actives shows only a couple with even a double-digit percentage loss. That is NOT capitulation. It's a start, but we're still a long ways away. We can't seem to get to capitulation because every time we get close, the shorts get nervous and yank us back from the brink.
Mind you, we may be in for yet another counter-trend rally here, as a bunch of the wrong-way options crowd is trying to get rich off the decline, but until there is a substantial new source of capital for the markets, or until we get GENUINE "Oh My God I'm Going to Lose Everything!" capitulation, we aren't done.
The decay underneath the surface of this market is enormous, and while a great many important levels that were breached this AM were fixed this afternoon, I suspect they will be tested again very soon. Of course, if we take out COMPX 1790 with ease, I'll pay this short-covering rally its due respect and get a little more long-side hedging...
BC |
