Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: carranza2 who wrote (8344)	9/6/2001 8:59:26 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Carranza, as the wise one, Jay, points out, modestly but correctly, those who correctly picked the huge gains which were made, those who correctly picked the irrational exuberance and those who correctly picked the techwreck, were partly wise but partly lucky. We can improve our odds by being really smart, knowing a lot and trying hard, but the luck component is always large. Think Long Term Capital Management. Damn Zenit sank them - a little butterfly in a Siberian forest came roaring through the markets just when they were on a knife edge balance. Over they went and the dominoes started tumbling - to be propped up by Uncle Al. If you congratulate them too much, you'll put a curse on them by inflating their sense of how smart they are. The paranoid won't be tricked by your flattery - they'll grin, but stay concealed and nervous, knowing that luck can run out and hand grenades can be tossed back by the always whispering survivors. Mqurice

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