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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: The Ox who wrote (7523)9/7/2001 2:23:08 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
I think the point is they are capital equipment, and not consumables.

So once they are in place and working, there is little need to buy more until they wear out (5 years or more, except maybe the pump lasers) or there is a need for more capacity (which may be a few years out.)

Some more on the telecom /networker supplier problem -

One big problem is that technical advancements in this industry have increased capacity of new equipment at a rate far faster than demand - maybe 3-8x per year. Demand was growing at 4x per year (1996-1998), but is now maybe 20-40%. WDM (times) faster modulators & recievers (times) more fiber in the ground = equals massive supply overshoot.

Sort of like going ftrom 16 k Dram to 64 Meg DRAM in 4 years, while still running 640k DOS.

Also, there is a lot of good used (or unused) stuff at 20 cents on the dollar.

It's just a typical CAPEX cycle meets the optical variant Moore's Law and spawns IRRATIONAL EXUBERNECE, and one H*ll of a hang over.
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