The Middle East Quarterly
Spring 2001
Who's Afraid of Israel?
by Eyal Zisser
meforum.org
Excerpt:
A growing balance of terror. Many in the Arab world today believe that time no longer favors the Israeli side, as it did as recently as the 1990s. Their reason is not merely Israel's lack of success in dealing with guerrilla warfare or the Palestinian and Hizbullah low-intensity conflicts launched against it. Their main reason is that, for the first time since the beginning of the Israel-Arab conflict, the Arab states have succeeded in creating a "balance of terror" with Israel thanks to their possession of non-conventional weaponry. These weapons include Syria's surface-to-surface missiles (which can reach most of Israel) and its chemical and biological weapons. Further off, Iraq and Iran are well on the way to arming themselves with nuclear weapons.
This balance of terror makes it easier for the Arab side to wage a popular struggle against Israel, for the latter is more reluctant to reacting with all its force, fearing that this might deteriorate into a total war which would cost Israel heavily. After all, since Israel's economy is much bigger and more prosperous than all of the Arab economies and the Israeli standard of living is higher than that of the surrounding Arab countries, the Israelis have more to lose in an all-out confrontation than do the Arabs. The impact of this balance of terror is already clear.
For example, it goes far to explain the nonchalance in late 2000 of Bashshar al-Asad in responding to Israel's demand that he rein in Hizbullah violence along. In his speech to the Arab summit in October 2000, he said that the current strategic situation enables the Arabs to conclude peace from a position of strength, a peace that should be "the peace of the strong," rather then "the peace of the brave."
Declarations like this demonstrate the erosion of Israel's strategic deterrence. This contributes to an increasing sense among many in the Arab world that there is nothing real behind Israel's claim to military superiority over the Arabs, or, if Israel does enjoy such superiority, it is a theoretical one and should not prevent the Arabs from challenging Israel. Violence, in short, has become once again a legitimate and effective tool to promote Arab interests.
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