Re: Your post seems to ring true here in Silicon Valley. With (I think) a bit more than 50% of American's invested in the stock market, how can it not ring true elsewhere too?
My recollection is that most Americans still have most of their net worth as equity in their homes. Here in the Chicago metro area, a construction boom is continuing (to my amazement, given all the economic areas that have been contracting). As I drive to work each morning, I pass by - literally, not exaggerating - hundreds of active construction sites in 20 minutes.
As long as this holds up, the economy will stagger along (at least). But if housing even pauses, it will get really ugly. The negative wealth effect of a housing price drop would be more pervasive than that of a market drop. One of the few sectors that can't be exported is building a home in the US, and that sector has continued strong and has (IMHO) been keeping everything else afloat.
I'm afraid that Greenspan is seeing a slight leveling off of manufacturing, and won't lower rates again. Following that, market interest rates will firm as the expectation goes from easing to tightening. That will kill off housing, and the economy will really fall off a cliff.
Regards, and hoping it doesn't happen,
Dan |
