The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum Message Board

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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (3902)	9/7/2001 9:56:21 AM
From: elmatador	of 46821

The bubble have seen lots of parties -the newcomers- going into telecoms: 1) Municipalities 2) Utilities 3) Cable TV 3) and way back, Real Estate I suspect the business cases of those newcomers were more influenced by vendors trying to sell their wares rather than by these newcomers real understanding of the telcoms' business. What they failed to realize is the very nature of the telecoms business. Mainly vendor incumbency. The unholy alliance between: Operators, regulators and the vendors that supply equipment. Fail to understand this and you lose. I am talking about guys who are willing to spend USD1.000+ billion to save USD250 billion (the PSTN in the US HW+SW amounts to USD250 billion). It would make a Third World country blush. But that's exactly what happened. Not only was money thrown to the wind in a scale never ever seen before but the job losses cause by this unwise investments -to defend legacy- is much greater than would be if the PSTN would be now in a process of being junked. It would help much more these newcomers an understanding of telecoms -the old died in the wool monopoly- rather than IT the technology underlying their plans. But during the bubble we didn't witness a lack of telecoms people. There were only lacking IT people. Not surprisingly: everyone was seeking IT people. The lesson is very clear. Anyone trying to make a business in this area has to understand the nature of the telco. Would you go ito battle without knowing who your enemy -and its allied are? Do armies not have an intelligence wing to supply its information? And I am not talking about the latest Frost and Sullivan, Yankee Group or Forrester Research Report. (Never trust a report which you didn't make it yp by yourself.) That's the second lesson any newcomers trying to go into this field have to learn. Any adjunct technology is bound to fail. It will fail unless it is "approved" by the incumbents under their own terms. Try to get Washington, DC to force-feed competition and you'll fail. The lesson for Metro Loops is clear in this respect: It will only be deployed under the terms of the incumbents. Period. FTTx will only see the light of the day if the incumbents ILECs would accommodate it under their own business model. A simple business model based on: overcharge long distance and international and business users and give local calls for free. The day this business model is changed then we could come back and discuss this gain. Because them we would have something that has changed. So far it has not. If I had to go on business today I would rather go for a business that would help ILECs/incumbents/legacy to preserve their grip rather than going into something that will cross their interests. And that's is what is comsuming my time now, Frank.

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