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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (8481)9/7/2001 10:08:54 AM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Hi JT; I see about the same thing, the MM is just as good
Relative to the NOVA and OTC as it was on April 4th however
there still isn't as much overall buying power in it, and the short interest
isn't as high. In other words it's close but not yet compelling.
---------------
With the drop yesterday not much of money that went out went to MM , that
could indicate we have people on margin who are being squeezed,
why would people be long on margin is this market ?
I wouldn't have guessed it but it looks that way.
--------------
Then too perhaps more people are like me than I thought;
I've been doing defensive in the money bull QQQ spreads,
now on paper it looks good however if to many people do
the same thing as I'm doing the market will just move lower, as
none of that money offers support.
Futures may give a short term bounce but the amount of
people in say Velocity don't really give longer term support.
& It's to high relative to the April 4th low .
------------------
While we look short term oversold there just don't seem to be
anything that will cause a rally to get enough steam to
do much more than be a dead cat bounce.
---------------------
On the other hand as I write this I hear even more bad news
about unemployment and it's not creating a bigger sell off.
If the market can hold with this bad news there is still a
chance that the old buy and hold gang is intact and we
are just shredding the short term & margin people.
--------------------
ALSO while MM is not as strong overall some of that has moved
into bonds since April. Ironic as it sounds it may take
interest rates get as low as they can go , and we could
see the market do the odd thing of moving up with
interest rates.
Major Cap spending is on hold as long as they think interest
rates are going down more.
Jim
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