Never having done poorly in the market, I would say my survival skills are quite good.
Is the story compelling? I think it is. Time frames are everything here.
The economy is doing better than most people expected, at this point. The sad part is that we are mired in hyped up, sensationalized media that is trying to make it sound worse.
The vast majority of pundits, in December, claimed that we were headed into a vast recession with a gallon of gasoline costing more than $2 by July. Well, we've come out of July with a gallon of gas averaging less than a $1.50 and the economy still avoiding recession.
However, to hear anyone speak, it sounds like the media wants this to be a recession. As a result, they are thumping the drums to this tune. I wouldn't be surprised if the effect of this to have a revision (as there once was previously) of the definition of recession. Once it was 3 quarters of declining GDP. Now it is 2. Perhaps now a recession should be 2 quarters of sub 1% growth?
Standard economic theory still holds in this environment. If you want true definitions, we've been (technically) in a "depression" for 18 months. A depression, technically, is defined as a lack of capital availability matched with surplus inventories.
Surviving a depression, and preventing it from becoming a death spiral, is a tricky task and one that has been followed admirably by not only Greenspan, but by most major corporations. However, indications continue to point to these factors ceasing to be a problem.
Is the story compelling? Yup. I know what your means of money management are from previous conversations, and they don't match mine. Stick to what you're good at, and I'll stick to what I'm good at, and we'll both do well. |
