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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARAKIS: HIGH RISK OIL PLAY (AKSEF)
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To: Razorbak who wrote (6282)6/20/1997 6:23:00 PM
From: Vincent Ramirez   of 9164
 
This is an undervalued company, despite problems I address

<<What key event(s) caused you to shift from bearish just a few months ago, to very bullish now?>>

1 B bbl * $2/ bbl net profit * 25 % working interest = $40 per share, without IRR factored in.
Political risk = 50% (therefore $20 / share) ; considerable upside potential (5 B bbl?). This is an undervalued stock. Regard these numbers as a crude way to express my opinion, and not how I make my actual calculations. I may post those later, after we agree on an economic framework.

My original short position was a trading decision based on market activity at the time (4 7/8). In hindsight, that decision was correct.

I look forward to this stock moving to $15. On the face of things it may not seem wise for a shareholder to air the laundry in public, but when things are ridiculously low it is time to take action. My agenda includes:

Supporting an independent Board of Directors

Developing this concession ASAP with no distractions

Building a bigger pipeline than the one proposed

Taking a hard look at how to raise $150 - 200 M needed for the pipeline

Addressing the rebel situation objectively

________________________

With all that said, is anyone else hearing the rumor about the upcoming Barrons article, about Arakis and board room antics? I can't evaluate this one, as it is just a whisper. I can pretty much imagine what they are going to say though, if this is true.

Vince
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