Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 220.28

-6.4%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: John Trader who wrote (51681)	9/7/2001 12:31:45 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) of 70976

John and all, revisiting a Ken Fisher column of 4 months ago... >Fall Till the Fall Kenneth L. Fisher, Forbes Magazine, 05.14.01, 12:00 AM ET It is still a long way to this bear market's bottom. I stick by my forecast of an S&P 500 bottom below 860 (it's now 1240) and a Nasdaq nadir of about 1200 (from 2080 currently). Why? Sentiment hasn't turned dour enough yet. My forecasting methodology is based on the broad consensus of market pros, but not in a way they may like: Whatever they say will happen simply won't happen. This may sound odd, but it rests on pure finance theory and is empirically wonderful. Both in theory and in practice, the market is a discounter of all known information. Everything people read about in the print media, see on TV and talk about with their friends is the basis of investment decisions. The trouble is, you can't make excess returns based on what everyone knows.< [snip] the rest of the story forbes.com I doubted him at the time and still think he's too pessimistic with his index targets, but he has the overall sequence and direction right. In another column he said unemployment would hit 4.9% before a turn. All his columns are at the Forbes web site. Gottfried

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next