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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 681.92

-0.7%

Dec 31 4:00 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (34104)	9/7/2001 3:37:59 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 69348

Hi Stefan, At this point I agree with you on the break of the April low. I don't expect it to break on this test though. The sell off is still too orderly as you ahve noted. We are down about 5 percent over 4 days on the COMPX. That is not enough built up energy to get a strong rally. We will need some good fundamental news to do that right now. The scenario I am work from is: Trend down till options expiration. Attempt to rally afterwards, as mutual fund managers try to make their picks look good for the end of qaurter. Collapse to re-test low in early October as mutual fund manager exit positions in light of uncertainty of earnings season. Break of April look in October as fund manager take care of tax loss selling for the year, results of a traditionally weak quarter and continued low visibility. I am not sure what kind of effect this will have this year. Many funds have no capital gains to offset with tax loss selling.

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