Gentlemen -
When I bought into the oil patch in 1999, I did so a little after oil prices had started to rise, and so I missed absolute stock bottom, which for many stocks occured BEFORE the price of oil lifted from $ 8.00.
In doing so, i missed the bottom, and this limited my average return over about 15 months to 40- 50 % , instead of near 2x.
My objection to buying telecom equipment builders here (which I will try to articulate somewhat better) is two fold -
1) I don't know which telecom & equip suppliers will survive. Some oil and gas companies went BK, some got bought cheap, and bought for cash or lousy stocks, and so only achieved limited returns. >>>Lots of these companies are still controlled by VCs (sometimes the same VCs), and I would not be surprised if they do something really cute that doesn't help the average shareholder. <<<
2) If you buy before the bottom, you get to wait longer and don't get the growth AND (if you use margin) have less buying power for a period of time (when there might be more bargins)
A big part of this is I don't know how to pick the winners in this space, not being that familar with telecom equip and the companies. I should learn, since I'm a EE in Silicon Valley. ;-)
Double in 4 years is about 1.20 **4 or 20 % IF it can up 2.4 times, that's close to 25%
I would be happy with either return. |
