It's a beautiful Saturday morning over the bay. The only sounds here are the birds, the tippy-tap of the keys, and, now and then, a boat motor kicking hard, once the owner idles far enough out of the harbour to have some running room. Upstairs, my son sleeps the deep sleep that only adolescents can sleep. We play an unspoken game on weekends: Every Friday he tells me to get him up so he can do his chores and every Saturday morning I fail to do so. He whines a bit that he won't have time to do what I ask of him, but then I always tell him not to worry and do what he can. I never tell him that I didn't want to wake him because I enjoy the time alone.
I often spend the first waking hours of a Saturday morning reviewing the popular press and the message boards. It allows me to form at least a fractured sense of what the non-professionals are thinking and what JQP is being fed.
It a pretty even mix out there right now. In the press I see equal amounts of cautious optimism and doom-and-gloom. I had expected more of the latter. At the local convenience store I glanced at the covers of the various magazines. The one that stood out for me was the Economist: "2001 Things To Do In A Recession". I was walking by the magazine rack very quickly, so perhaps it was "2001: Things To Do In A Recession". No matter. The talk of recession is widespread, of that there is no doubt, although hardly anybody will say we are actually in one.
On the boards, I notice more than anything something that's *not* there. We have lost many thousands of casual players and investors, mostly of the permabull persuasion. I suppose most have given up and I expect many were wiped-out. It's hard for me to imagine how dispiriting it must be for folks who climbed onto the March and April rallies to be facing prices lower than when they bought. Let's face it, hardly anybody bought the bottom, so by far most of the holders are underwater now.
For the bears, it's very hard to hold firm in the face of continued winnings. The last 20 years have conditioned the bears to be far more fearful of a quick move than are the bulls.
Ooops, the son has arisen. My time is done and I didn't get past the preamble to something more substantive. No matter. Perhaps I'll get to it tomorrow in my quiet time: that time between the sunrise and the son rise. -g
Cheers |
