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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies

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To: Bill McCabe who wrote (8440)	9/8/2001 12:07:49 PM
From: Richard Saunders	Read Replies (1) of 24921

bill - TLM Talisman & your us$75 number. How do you come up with that? There are just under 140mil shares f.d. + pfds. For argument's sake forget the preferreds. Debt at 2Q was just under cdn$2.5bil, at yr. end 2001 it will be more but so will production (expected to grow 20% vs 2Q numbers). Still for the argument's sake, let's use about cdn$3.2bil for assumed yr. end 2001 debt & misc. (pfd's.?) In u.s dollars that's a touch over $2bil. Quick number crunch -- your us$75 number times 140mil. shares plus a couple of u.s.$bil. for debt indicates somewhere around us$12.5bil. deal. Maybe I'm missing something & that's why I asked how you came up with "the number" BUT at first glance I'm skeptical...... u.s.$75 is ballpark to about cdn$117 Sure, TLM is an interesting situation but I'd argue that your number adds pie-in-the-sky premium. Last estimates I've seen for the co. are putting 52wk. target of about cdn.$85 or about us$54 on the stock. IF takeover were to happen (two letter word = IF) one could probably argue some sort of premium could be added but,...... "the number" you're indicating? Just interested in what you're seeing.

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