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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: Sweet Ol who wrote (7577)	9/8/2001 12:25:44 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) of 23153

A couple of minor points 1. August is typically a goofy month for employment due to students going back to school. There also appears to be some discrepancy between the unemployment numbers and the payroll numbers. Will be interesting to see if August numbers are revised next month, and which way. 2. Companies pay into an unemployment fund whether they lay off or not. There should be a huge amount of money set aside from the boom years we have just gone through so not sure the impact on government budgets will be significant. If they can't find work before benefits run out then it's a different story altogether. 3. Those layoffs are IMHO a good thing. Many companies have a large amount of dead wood in the form of nonperforming personnel and departments. I for one am happy to see the layoffs IF they are done to make the company more "lean and mean". The workers will find new jobs just as the masses laid off from the end of the cold war did in the 80's (now THOSE were some layoffs!). 4. The layoffs appear to have tapered off as of late. With the economy bottoming and a possible recovery on the horizon I would expect companies to be loathe to let go of more skilled workers. I don't think this quarter will be nearly as bad as the last one as far as warnings and layoffs go. 5. Quite a number of companies came out and affirmed guidance this week and last, which seems a bit odd. Fairchild actually raised guidance this week. Many analysts have been surprised by all of this and the media has pretty much ignored it except for Intel. Even Intel's news had some very negative spin put on it by many reporting services. All that being said things could look much worse in the near future even though things are actually getting better. As far as I am concerned NAPM numbers are by far the most important numbers to watch with consumer confidence being a close second. Most everything else is noise, including the President's tough talk yesterday.

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