[Friendly debate, honest]
<<<Let me answer your question with like questions...Is it possible that BA will never use DMT?>>>
It's possible, though I can't imagine Ray Smith being that pig-headed if he saw the market going the other direction. I despair, however, when I realize engineers at BA haven't looked at DMT in four years, according to my sources.
<<<Is it possible that the ALA DMT will never interoperate with an AMTX solution?>>>
If TI/MOT/NEC/ADI/ERICCY/NT and Siemens interoperate, do you think Alcatel won't?
<<<Is it possible that AMTX will be shut out the North American market?>>>
Again, will TI, Siemens, Motorola, Ericcson, Alcatel and ADI be shut out of the North American market? How about MSFT/GTE/INTC? --- who are all working on DMT at some level.
<<< Bell Atlantic and Nynex are both using the Westell equipment. Bell Atlantic has a contract to use the Westell equipment. Bell Atlantic is merging with Nynex...>>>
That may be true, but the word out of the Bear Stearns Tech Conference this week was that Westell's in trouble. Not speaking of the RADSL, mind you, as I don't think anyone's seen it yet, but the early products. This was not my biased opinion. This came from the analysts who attended. Gary Seamans also spoke at a Goldman Sachs conference recently and said he thought CAP would capture 30% of the world market. Now would you expect him to give an optimistic figure? I've heard others say 10 to 15% is more likely, at best.
<<<Is this wishful thinking? What don't you understand with the BA/WSTL/DSC deal? It's a 4 year deal!! Do we have numbers... NO, but like you mention with the Siemens deal... "A follow-on announcement will come. I don't know when." Should I pose the same questions to you about the Siemens deal?>>>
I know the Siemens numbers. When I know the BA/WSTL/DSC numbers, I'll know whether to be worried.
>> I asked who would be the first to deploy in Europe and he said BT. He also said Siemens is the largest supplier to BT, doing $900 million last year. <<
<<<that $900 million has nothing to do with the xDSL equipment. How about if I said that Bell Atlantic does a Billion a year with Lucent. Does that tell you that LU is going to supply the xDSL gear?>>>
I apologize if you thought I was implying it was an ADSL number. I meant to inply that BA worked with Siemens and the strong ties might benefit Amati at some point. The same is true of BA/LU. You are absolutely correct.
>> I then asked what other ADSL business Siemens was working on and he said their semiconductor division will have a chip out in '98, using Amati's technology. <<
<<<Now this is news... Siemens to create the 3rd AMTX based solution. When will BT deploy? Granted you provide some excellent information from the AMTX perspective, but do you really think AMTX/Siemens is going to tell anyone that some of the RBOC's are going to deploy CAP.>>>
I don't know deployment schedules for BT. I wish I did. As for CAP deployment, my attitude is colored by what I hear from many sources, including several well-known analysts who follow ADSL as carefully as anyone anywhere, and by what I've picked up from telco representatives with whom I've spoken.
<<<Was Siemens ever in the bidding on the BT order. ALA, Nortel and Fujitsu were the final 3 for the BT contract. Have you heard differently?>>>
I don't know if Siemens bid the ADSL part of the BT contract. When their VP said they did $900M for BT last year, he said it was under the Concert umbrella, so most likely it was ATM. Again, my only point was to emphasize the close working-relationship between them.
Now let me ask you something --- I would never insult you enough to suggest BA/Nynex would be left out of the ADSL market -- so let me ask why you're rattling the sabre when the following have announced they'll go all or predominantly with DMT?
*Gang of Four
*GTE
*Germany
*France
*Italy
*Spain
*Israel
*Sweden
*UK
*Hong Kong
*Japan
*Canada
*Singapore
*Switzerland
*Netherlands
*South Africa
*Brazil(the last 3 mentioned by Siemens)
And why are we even having this debate? It's a big world. There is work enough for all.
Regards,
Pat |
