Dear Dipy and twister (the identical twin brothers - one soul in 2 bodies - or should I just say one body?!):
How nice it is for you two to be right once after so many years of being so wrong. It is totally understood the exuberance you must be enjoying.
But remember, and keep in mind, times will change indeed as it never stays the same. As an optimist I believe in times going forward for better things, and you 2 (as pessimists) by nature create nothing but fears and sing nothing but gloom and doom. Whether I am an extreme naive optimists or you 2 as foolish pessimists will become known in due time. One thing we all share is indeed time.
I repeat, markets consists of a set of logical factors (e.g. P/E, P/S, revenue growth, etc.), and also a set of illogical factors (i.e. basic human emotions, perceptions and understandings of what to come). It is those illogical factors that define the logical aspects of the markets.
At this time it is fear that is rulling and you 2 are the perfect examples of individual(s) (?!) who - after being so wrong for so many years - have come to be right for a short period of time. To be so irrationally exuberant about your being correct during this period is as foolish as one can possibly be.
Lets talk in early January/February of 2002 and see how you 2 are doing (which for all I know and will be sure of would be the same as always: being afraid, creating fears, and singing the gloom and doom that would never really come).
In any event, right now I maybe down (as far as my portfolio is concerned which I admit year to date is down by about 40%) - however I will continue to average down as (and if) what I hold in my portfolio continue to go down for which my convictions tell me to do so. And I can tell you one thing for certain, for me to throw the towel and become a pessimist would be the day I am buried 6 feet under - and even then I doubt that very much. It is similiar for you 2 to throw in the towel and become a couple of optimists! That I am sure will never happen as it is not in your nature.
Nasdq going to 500? So be it. I will average down all the way to Nasdaq 500 for which I know it will see 10,000 someday - perhaps not this year, or next year, or the following year, but sometime during the next 15 years - and it "will happen" during the next 15 years. You may think 15 years is a long way - but believe me - and I only wished I knew how to express this - 15 years will pass by you so fast and so quickly you will be amazed.
Menawhile you 2 (1), sit out there fill these message boards with yoru gloom and doom songs. The other day I went to the LSI thread and I clicked on Dipy's name and (just for testing) elected to ignore all his public messages. Then I went back to the LSI thread and the page was literally empty! It was as if Dipy had been having a conversation going on with himself. I then went to the JDSU thread and did the same thing, and it also showed only a few posts! It was rather funny. And If I do the same with twister (who seems to be so obsessed with one and only one thread namely SUNW) I am sure I get the same results!
In any event, unlike you 2 I have never wished anyone to lose money and have never ever enjoyed seeing anyone losing money. As such I do sincerely wish you the best and I hope you act correctly when the time comes to take your gains (in however you are playing the markets at this time). And do not become so euphoric in your gains (as I along with so many other longs became in March of 2000) not to take profits at the peak. Money comes and money goes - this believe me is the absolute truth. What is most important is to be humble in your interactions with others for which human emotions once impacting someone else's emotions will stay that way for ever.
- Addi |
