Commercial Short data worth noting in a post by The Freep:
Message 16319528
However, one thing that's different now vs. the April bottom is that, according to the Commitment of Traders report, the commercials (the so called "smart money") have actually increased their short position in the S+P as of this past Wednesday. At the April retest, they had actually DECREASED noticeably two weeks in a row. (I should point out that I ignored that information in April. . . and watched my few remaining shorts turn VERY sour very fast, a memory that still irks me.)
People who study the COT reports tell me that, at the bottom, the commercials will be net long, not net short. We're not there yet, and show no signs of it. Again, of course, the commercials don't play so much short term as they do long term, so a strong bear market rally is always possible (perhaps even fueled by some commercial short covering?). Their deep pockets allow them to simply roll out to the next month and the next, whereas us small fry cannot afford to watch our money dwindle so |
