Gus, Perhaps I am doing the wrong math. For a shot at EMC any company would spin an ASIC just the way they wanted it.
There are few analysts that would get the approval of this thread for their work, but the sure excepetion to this of course is Mr. Montague, who seems to be without peer in his
eary arrival to this scene, thorough, very hard working and with the integrety that so many lack. He wouldn't say stuff like this without a good chance of it being right....
Message 16161448
The Spider At EMC:
Our recent due diligence on the revenue potential of the "Spider" program
at EMC has provided surprisingly positive results. This project centers on
the opportunity to replace the current 2-port Fibre Channel adapter design
for the Symm 5 platform with an adapter that uses Fibre Channel switch
silicon to deliver 8 ports. The resulting design would provide a dramatic
increase in the connectivity available for each Symm 5, as well as some
impressive new availability features within the Symm 5 architecture.
We now estimate that Spider adapter attach rates for the Symm 5 in SAN
attached environments can approach 30% to 50% by mid 2002. Using an
approximate estimate for Symm 5 SAN attached units shipped in 2000, Spider
adapters per Symm 5, and per port pricing for Spider adapters, we now
estimate that Spider adapters are a $20 million to $180 million
opportunity
at EMC in 2002. Our current mean expectation for 2002 is $75 million.
Though we continue to believe that Brocade Communications Systems (Nasdaq:
BRCD; B-Agg; $37.70) is best positioned as primary source for the Spider
program, we also sense that QLogic Corporation can capture a meaningful
portion of this opportunity as the second source vendor. EMC appears
increasingly committed to using multiple vendors for all of its Fibre
Channel
programs.
Perhaps second sourcing and thinks are far from the announcement plate on Monday, but the venerable Mr M. suggests more than hope for the QLGC fans. Second sourcing of switches hasn't worked so far for the q, but they have a a good history of ASIC sourcing, also without the BRCD brand effect for components the playing field will have to be better for them than the existing one.
So I'll keep my shares. ALso a factor is the 2G transition and when EMC MAKES that transition. He who has a EMC switchblade socket at 1G may not have the same 2G slot? Which would you rather have? I'll keep "humble hope"....
Hope humbly then; with trembling pinions soar;
Wait the great teacher Death, and God adore.
What future bliss He gives not thee to know,
But gives that hope to be thy blessing now.
Hope springs eternal in the human breast:
Man never is, but always to be, blest.
The soul, uneasy and confin'd from home,
Rests and expatiates in a life to come
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