John, CG,
Yes, its at the Design Exchange (again).
I was suprised she had made that comment (though I
never doubted the reporter) because it's so chatty
that it's not at all in keeping with the fortress
Dimethaid we've all come to know.
Something is in the air. Of course it could be pollen.
We announced our conference call ahead of time and there
were callers.
After years of saying we weren't commenting on FDA progress
(except that she was in close touch and confident) she
goes on CNBC and says flat out we'll get it.
She takes nickels and dimes from Acqua, gets scr*wed by
EU beurocracy for at least a 60 day delay, is living on
Canadian Tire money - and then announces an intent to buy
100% of OXO.
I'm thinking of asking her what she has for breakfast.
The only nagging thing for me is the obvious disconnect
between producing Pennsaid since September and watching
the balance sheet inventory and cost of sales with no
sign of Pennsaid the last 2 quarters.
There was speculation two quarters ago that it was sitting
in the jump in prepaids - but thats gone, and there's still
nothing in the cost of sales line.
Don't forget they're producing well over 1/2 a million
in Pennsaid a quarter at cost.
Here are the inventory lines:
08/31 - 767,599
11/30 - 1,263,160
02/29 - 934,123
05/31 - 912,248
Here are the reported sales with the 1,430,000 stripped
out in the last quarter but the cost of sales untouched
.
Sales: 235,767 277,621 240,429 221,904
Costs: 135,790 140,659 197,096 151,369
No Pennsaid COS there (maybe 50,000 in Q3). This is
Dioptic labs.
I see the 500,000 jump in inventory end November. Then
330,000 or so disappears in Feb without that quarter's
production showing up on top. Then in May its still
doesn't show anywhere and the May quarter's production
also isn't visible.
Yet we hear Provalis has been re-ordering.
...
When you follow the cash you can see they've pulled in
something above $3 million Cdn that hasn't been reported
yet which suggests the inventory is actually moving
through.
I count roughly $1.2 million in inventory at cost which
I can't see. Thats based on the 500,000 increase in
inventory end November where they started producing in
September - and projecting that they produced an equal
amount in the February and May quarters.
Inventory dropped 330,000 in February which ties in nicely
with the idea that they shipped it to arrive in March for
the Provalis launch.
It was either PlayTheKing or BlueJay as I remember who
argued for some form of consignment relationship.
I think that was right.
They've been shipping the inventory to Provalis as fast
as they've been making it. Provalis launched in March
and none of those sales/cost of sales were recognized
by the end of May because whatever the revenue recognition
cycle is determined as - none had completed that cycle.
Provalis reported end June and while its more difficult
to seperate their Pennsaid sales there doesn't appear to
have been a major impact yet (though news articles
subsequently suggest Pennsaid is selling).
I expect much of this will become clearer with the August
reporting which we should see before the Oct 30 AGM.
Wolf |
