Can someone comment? This is very unscientific, but here goes:
If the QQQ was at about $55 in March, 1999, and it split one time since then, would not it's true value for March of 1999 be $27.50 then? If so, then look at the Nasdaq in March of 1999 with a level of near 2400 or so and a level of say, 1700 in Oct, 1998. If we adjust the QQQ to an Oct., 1998 level, assuming a .75% drop correlation to 1% on the Nasdaq, we get a drop of about 20% on the QQQ or an Oct, 1998 level of $22. At a current level of $33 and change on the QQQ, we need a drop of about $11 to get to an estimated Oct., 1998 level. Keeping the same estimated drop ratio of the QQQ to the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq would have to fall about 420-450 points to around 1250 to get a $22 price on the QQQ. Remember, I'm old, senile, and in pain, so feel free to call me nuts. Thoughts appreciated.
I remain,
SOROS |
