>>The bacteria is a recession and lower earnings with the possibility of a 10 year Japan like recession. Hey, it could happen.. .<<
Sure it could, but it is extremely unlikely given the fundamental differences between the US and Japan. The form of capitalism in the US is much purer: companies make it, or they go bankrupt. In Japan, marginal companies exist forever thanks to a never-ending series of loans and reworked loans for those companies that cannot make payments. Unlike the US, there is substantial stigma associated with going bankrupt in Japan, causing companies (e.g. their management) to do everything they can to avoid that. In Japan, if your company goes BK, good luck finding a new job. In the US, who cares? Companies go BK all the time, the creditors divvy up the assets, and the execs and employees move on, wizened by the lesson. That doesn't happen in Japan; rather than let the poor companies fail, they continue to flail. The same holds true for employees -- firing employees in Japan (although more accepted now than five years ago) is still seen as an act of corporate weakness. In the US, you get fired because the CEO had bad eggs for breakfast. Ironically, that's good, because US workers are forced to learn new or different skills, or decide to extract revenge by going on to form new companies that better deliver the products customers want. Short term pain, long term progress. IMHO, the US will never enter into a ten-year string of recessions as Japan has due to the countries' cultural differences. Hell, it's almost a badge of honor in the Valley to say that your first two start-ups went BK. It tells the VC folks (who you are asking to fund your 3rd effort) that you know adversity, have learned lessons and know what pitfalls to avoid in the future.
All MHO, of course. All this talk about the US entering into a ten-year "recession" a la Japan (you aren't the only one singing this song, and this message isn't necessarily directed to you personally) is just one more sign we are nearing the bottom of this tech bear. If we haven't already reached final lows, we'll do so in the next two months.
RK |
