Right now, my "model" does not have a "nationwide" RE collapse nor a recession in the next six months at least (most probably, no recession starting until late next year or early 2003). I also do not see a start of a major correction in the dollar until next year (I feel that the launch of Euro currencies and abandonment of national currencies may actually cause the dollar to strengthen artificially early next year). I have a "trigger" of the start of the dollar falls when our balance of payments gets to the $40 B monthly, which will be one of many elements in a consumer led recession after the next recovery, what I have dubbed for some time the "double dip" recession, the current dip which is an inventory correction and the next dip which could be consumer led, both dips being characterized by massive and broad based overcapacity. The decline of the dollar will bring about, amongst other things, fears (unjustified IMTO) of inflation, fed's knee jerk reaction to raise rates and a very strong gold rally, but nothing like the gold bugs are visualizing, I have a top of under $400 for the next main gold move. For the next dip my model shows a low of 6000 on the Dow, probably not before 2003. Of course, my turnips reserve the right to be wrong, change their mind and change it often.
Toward the middle of the next cycle, RE decline (and I doubt it will be a "collapse", except in some specific area where the decline will be fiercer) could start from an imbalance of oversupply and reduced ability of the consumer to "trade up", and the begining of a generational shift into "less housing" as the boom's elders start to move into retirement and out of their 3000 sq/feet plus houses.
Zeev |
