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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility

AAPL 268.55

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3:59 PM EST

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To: SusieQ1065 who wrote (15051)	9/9/2001 10:49:20 AM
From: ChrisJP	Read Replies (2) of 208838

Hi Susie, yes the VIX number as well as some of the TRIN readings are very convincing. First I need to say something about the "April Low". The April low was caused by people being forced to sell because they needed money to pay their tax bills. Big money vultures knew this and shorted the crap out of the drop. People didn't want to sell and still had confidence that the stock market was still the place to be. There was plenty of "sideline money" ready to jump in and take advantage of this oversold opportunity. Since mid August, the market has changed. What took so stinking long I have no clue. But this time around, people are selling because they are sick of the market, because they are finally (and correctly) convinced that its gonna be a while before the risk/reward of stocks is better than the risk/reward of cash. The selling is on a scale similar to the insane buying that happened from Jan 2000 - March 2000. Its funny that on the last leg up, no one mentioned the technical alarm bell indicators that kept saying "WE'RE AT THE TOP !!". But everybody's pointing to everything that suggests we're at the bottom. To me the VIX isn't saying that we're oversold (even though the markets are) -- this time around the VIX is saying ... . . . ............. welcome to "Step 5 !" lol Chris

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