Jay, just before my trip, I did a rough calculation that the current booking rate of just around $750 MM/month in the semi equip space is just barely enough to cover maintenance and support of existing equipment in the field, thus for the last three months, we have essentially had zero capacity expansion and very little technology improvements bookings, I figure that even if INTC cut their 2002 budget by 20% to $6 B and the rest of the industry does no buying, we should be at more than $1.25 B per month in bookings, that will "look" very positive for the industry IMHO, and by the way, these are ultra conservative assumptions. The only thing I fear is the last leg of the semi-equip decline, it can be quite murderous. In my last tree trades in NEWP, for instance, I have created a cushion of about $2, so my last buy's cost is about $14, only $2 above BV, sure NEWP could go under book, and if I see selling accelerating, I may take NEWP off the table and reenter again lower, and the same with potential other entries (VECO around $22?). Actually, I would not be surprised to see AMAT finally breaking $40 and making a fast run to the lows, or even lower, I would not be surprised, but I do not think it likely if the 1600 on the Naz were to hold. If we go the route of the August (obviously, this should now be called the September low <g>) and October lows coalescing (the new "improved" forecast), then it could happen. Monday and Tuesday will probably show which way we go...
As for Lehman forecasts, what were they saying last April, when I suggested the peak in the sector is within 2 quarters? I think that they are a little late in downgrading these here, and that is "par for the course" for the "prognostication" industry. I wonder what is Joseph saying now that many semi equips are making new lows and he has turned completely bullish some three four months ago (around the mid May peak, when I said go back to the hills).For that matter, what does Hayes says, after all, the NDX already did a new lower low and the SPX printed less than .2% from the April lows on Friday.
Zeev |
