| Let's just say I disagree with your hangup on the GAAP/proforma distinction, which is a big deal all of a sudden when the market is down. I don't disagree that CSCO could go down, and I have puts against my holdings, plus. However, I still think the reason the stock is down is more due to psychology than any computations. I am not optimistic about the economy with democrats leading the senate, as I feel any necessary tax cuts will be defeated before Bush would get a chance to sign them, although he doesn't seem willing to support the necessary tax reductions the economy requires, i.e., corporate and capital gains, which would fuel the type of spending the economy needs. Your calculations are nice for you to base your opinion on , but how many folks making big money decisions are using numbers? I don't think that many are. They use momentum. I've made a good sum trading puts this year. Sometimes you just can't fight the market. As far as the capital spending crunch goes, yes there appears to be a reduction, but when you listen to the other networkers, namely LU and NT, they are in the toilet, laying off and selling left and right, to reach their breakeven points. I think this bodes well for CSCO to take more market share. CSCO is down, but I don't believe they're quite out, and will continue to hold. I wouldn't advocate buying. I'll let the pros do that. Thankfully, when I bought in 93, I caught enough of the rise to remain well ahead even in this trough.knc |
