Hello Alan Ableson!
Excerpt from this weeks Barron's columnist. With the
markets looking so miserable, it's nice to know someone
else thinks the market is due for a nice bounce:
"...Where do we go from here? Somehow, we had a hunch you might ask that question. And we can answer definitively -- we don't know. We're still of a mind that we're on the verge of a big bounce, but what's new?
Actually, our conviction on that score was reinforced after chatting with Bob Farrell last Friday. With summer virtually history, Bob, sensible fellow that he is, has just about given up on a summer rally. But he does spot some signs of a pending rally.
Among them: rising volume, greater volatility, a shift in speculative temperament as evidenced by a preference for puts over calls, and various and sundry other things that smack of an oversold market. But he cautions that any bottom will be temporary -- an interruption, not an end, to the bear market.
He now dates the bear market as starting in '98, when at least half the stocks in the S&P 500 began extended declines. And he espies a secular change in the investment calculus, calling for much reduced rates of return.
The trading rally could go on for some weeks, but any final bottom, he feels, is at least months away. And even then, Bob warns, we're in for a long enervating, frustrating stretch." |
