EW Update by Mathias Onischka, 11:04 09.09.01
Clumsy automatic computer translation by Altavista.
The call is for a potentially very significant decline, unless the market is able to rally from these levels.
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Elliottwaves: Last support with 1.320-1.340 The Nasdaq100 is according to opinion of the Elliotwaves at a crucial point. The danger that the technology index falls on Monday drastically, is large. A crash up to 1.000 points is possible. But there is also a positive scenario.
The trend of prices, to which American technology index took Nasdaq100 (NDX) on Tuesday, was trend crucial. There too far ran, arose immediately Abwaertspotenzial into the lower 1.300-er area well-known-measured the consolidation. Even the theoretical possibilities of a soil formation in the last days one did not use, so that the NDX with the session achieved this target area almost. One can mark the current technical situation at the best one with ' Hopp or topp '. Because: The index is up-to-date at the last significant support. In order to be able to keep upright the scenario of a wave C into the middle 2000-er area, must to beginning of the week of the NDX upward turn off now. Realistically seen the probability for it is however not particularly high, since also in the last weeks the index left the existing technical possibilities of a change of trend always unused. Assumed, it would actually come to beginning of the week to an upward motion, then first only Kurspotenzial to scarce exists over 1.500 points. Only if the downtrend channel will leave upward here, a purchase signal results also on daily base. With a BREAK of the support 1,320-1,340 there are no more considerable supports, so that the NDX should fall within few weeks up to approximately 1,000 points. Medium-term then only really large change of trend can be rung in with scarce under 1.000 points. From Elliottwave view the index would be at the moment in the midst of the Wave 3 ' from iii (Wave 1 ' as diagonal trifishes), so that with approx. 1,170 reaction of several days would only follow. But: Still the decision is not finally pleases, one must the trend of prices to beginning of the week wait for. At short notice: The downward movement of the last two sessions is not impulsive. In the Intraday Chart one can detect clear, three-wavy corrections, so that at first sight no really negative implications are possible actually. With the attempt of a classification into the larger wave picture one can diagonally trifishes detects, whereby however still no really significant outbreak took place. Basically the short term downtrend is so for a long time intact, as 1,415 points are exceeded not yet. In the case of the final diagonally trifish would have at the latest toward end of the next commercial week this resistance to be overcome, so that a correct purchase signal is generated. For Monday however the acute danger exists that the NDX loses clearly after a non-uniform initialization at soil. thereby no particular support will offer 1,320-1,340, so that within fewer commercial hours a move until 1,265 points is possible. Here there is then however only a temporary reaction, since 1,170 as intermediate objective rapidly one achieves. Market technique: On daily base those are further fully active sales signal and suggest further losses. There are bullische divergences very at short notice, however their force of expression is rather small considering the relatively neutral situation. Result: The NDX is on the meter cut, since only one change of trend can prevent a crash until 1,000 points on Monday (with BREAK of 1.415). The current support 1,320-1,340 is trend crucial thereby. Author: Mathias Onischka, 11:04 09.09.01 |
