VIX Analysis Targets
By Magician
9/9/2001
The VIX has closed in the 34's five times in 2001, excluding Friday's close
at 34.36. The dates were January 2nd, March 14th, March 23rd, April 2nd and
April 5th. An analysis of the Nasdaq's performance on the trading day
following a VIX close in the 34's yields some interesting results. The data
from January 2nd is not used in this analysis and is treated as an outlying
data point because the action was caused by the first FOMC rate cut and
skews the analysis. Using the four other closes in the 34's in 2001 we get
an average LOSS on the next trading day for the Nasdaq of 51 points or 3%.
The QQQ's lose on average $1.67 or 4.2%. Thus, targets closes for Monday are
1,634 to 1,638 for the Nasdaq and $32.03 to $32.27 for the QQQ.
NASDAQ QQQ
Point Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 324.83 $9.00
% Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 14.2% 16.8%
Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -31.3 $(1.60)
% Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -1.6% -3.7%
Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -109.97 $(2.74)
% Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -6.2% -7.3%
Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -64.64 $(1.36)
% Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6 -3.6%
Avg Point Change 21.7 $0.46
0.45% -0.02%
Average Point Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -54.045 $(1.67)
Average % Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -3.0% -4.2%
MONDAY PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ
Using Point Avg 1,633.66 $32.03
Using % Avg 1,637.45 $32.27
The table below calculates the target low on the Nasdaq and QQQ based on a
VIX close in the 34 area. January 2nd is excluded from the calculations.
This table calculates the lowest point the Nasdaq and QQQ hits before
bouncing for more than one day. The average loss for the Nasdaq after a 34
reading in the VIX is 160 points or 8.5%. The average loss on the QQQ is
$4.22 or 10.2%. Based on this data our target bounce zones for the Nasdaq
and QQQ are 1,528 to 1,545 for the Nasdaq and $29.49 to $30.26 for the QQQ.
NASDAQ QQQ
Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 (141.86) (3.40)
% Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 -7.2% -7.8%
Point Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 (289.88) (8.75)
% Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 -15.0% -20.4%
Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 (144.17) (3.35)
% Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 -8.1% -9.0%
Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 (64.64) (1.36)
% Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6% -3.6%
Avg Point Change (160.14) (4.22)
Avg % Change -8.5% -10.2%
PREDICTION:
NASDAQ QQQ
Using Point Avg 1,527.56 $29.49
Using % Avg 1,544.54 $30.26
VIX Analysis Targets
By Magician
9/9/2001
The VIX has closed in the 34's five times in 2001, excluding Friday's close
at 34.36. The dates were January 2nd, March 14th, March 23rd, April 2nd and
April 5th. An analysis of the Nasdaq's performance on the trading day
following a VIX close in the 34's yields some interesting results. The data
from January 2nd is not used in this analysis and is treated as an outlying
data point because the action was caused by the first FOMC rate cut and
skews the analysis. Using the four other closes in the 34's in 2001 we get
an average LOSS on the next trading day for the Nasdaq of 51 points or 3%.
The QQQ's lose on average $1.67 or 4.2%. Thus, targets closes for Monday are
1,634 to 1,638 for the Nasdaq and $32.03 to $32.27 for the QQQ.
NASDAQ QQQ
Point Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 324.83 $9.00
% Change 2-Jan-01 to 3-Jan-01 14.2% 16.8%
Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -31.3 $(1.60)
% Change 14-Mar-01 to 15-Mar-01 -1.6% -3.7%
Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -109.97 $(2.74)
% Change 2-Apr-01 to 3-Apr-01 -6.2% -7.3%
Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -64.64 $(1.36)
% Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6 -3.6%
Avg Point Change 21.7 $0.46
0.45% -0.02%
Average Point Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -54.045 $(1.67)
Average % Change EXCLUDING Jan 3 -3.0% -4.2%
MONDAY PREDICTION: NASDAQ QQQ
Using Point Avg 1,633.66 $32.03
Using % Avg 1,637.45 $32.27
The table below calculates the target low on the Nasdaq and QQQ based on a
VIX close in the 34 area. January 2nd is excluded from the calculations.
This table calculates the lowest point the Nasdaq and QQQ hits before
bouncing for more than one day. The average loss for the Nasdaq after a 34
reading in the VIX is 160 points or 8.5%. The average loss on the QQQ is
$4.22 or 10.2%. Based on this data our target bounce zones for the Nasdaq
and QQQ are 1,528 to 1,545 for the Nasdaq and $29.49 to $30.26 for the QQQ.
NASDAQ QQQ
Point Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 (141.86) (3.40)
% Change 14-Mar-01 to 21-Mar-01 -7.2% -7.8%
Point Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 (289.88) (8.75)
% Change 23-Mar-01 to 4-Apr-01 -15.0% -20.4%
Point Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 (144.17) (3.35)
% Change 2-Apr-01 to 4-Apr-01 -8.1% -9.0%
Point Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 (64.64) (1.36)
% Change 5-Apr-01 to 6-Apr-01 -3.6% -3.6%
Avg Point Change (160.14) (4.22)
Avg % Change -8.5% -10.2%
PREDICTION:
NASDAQ QQQ
Using Point Avg 1,527.56 $29.49
Using % Avg 1,544.54 $30.26 |
