re: The Independent Comments on Dan Roberts Financial Times "Doom and Gloom"
It's a curious thing about the City and the financial press, but
their propensity to exaggerate the negative in bad times is almost as
great as their failure to spot and expose the hype during the good.
>> Outlook: Vodafone/Orange
The Independent - United Kingdom
Sep 8, 2001
SHOCK, HORROR! Vodafone to launch 3G service as originally planned.
Well, that wouldn't make much of a headline, would it? But it was certainly the implication of Vodafone's clarifying statement yesterday in response to a front page article in the Financial Times suggesting that the mobile phones giant would launch its 3G service at sub-standard speeds. In fact, said Vodafone, we will be launching in accordance with the internationally agreed protocol at speeds of 384 kilo bits per second (kbps) initially, rising to 2 megabits later. In outlying areas the service would operate at 64 kbps. This always was the plan, and it still is.
It's a curious thing about the City and the financial press, but their propensity to exaggerate the negative in bad times is almost as great as their failure to spot and expose the hype during the good. Virtually no-one in the City or the press warned about the massive over investment that was going on in the telecommunications industry at the time it was actually happening and might have done some good. But now that the bubble has burst, it's open season and the "why oh why" copy flows freely.
A particular object of attention is 3G. If the sheer weight of column inches devoted to predicting that A. it won't work and B. that even if it does nobody will pay for it, is any guide, then it's a pretty safe bet that it will be an outstanding success.
The speed of 3G networks will be largely determined by the density of transmission antennae. Curiously, Vodafone seems to be investing as little as it can in the necessary sites, which means that its service might indeed be quite slow in certain areas. That's got everything to do with Vodafone's own commercial view of how best to use expensively bought spectrum, and nothing to do with prospects for 3G itself. Orange's higher density transmission network will allow it to launch at speeds between 389 and 144 kbps, and the company seems to have a generally more positive view of the likely take-up for these services.
3G isn't solely about video clips for football matches and prospective dates, nor has it really got much to do with accessing the internet over the mobile phone. These are popular misconceptions. What it's really about is a vast new market in telematics. But then in the present mood of deepening despondency, who wants to know about that? <<
- Eric - |
