Amy, RE: the economy
I believe 2.5 years is the longest that a recession has lasted, so your comment has potential. Short-term it could be very bumpy.
Note that using those numbers, the very earliest that any recession could have started would be the current quarter. However, I don't think that the numbers are right, anyway. The US economy shrunk in 1930, 1931, 1932, and 1933. I don't think that the current times are analogous to the Great Depression, mind you. That's why I don't think that the length of past recessions has any correlation to the current slowdown/recession/whatever-the-heck-we-call-this.
The one nice thing that stock investors have going for them right now is that, as long as you don't lever your portfolio here, the main mistake you can make is that you're early. The economy will recover sooner or later, the stock market will recover sooner or later. You might have to sit on a portfolio for a while, though. Buying at the bottom, or what you perceive to be the bottom, can be antagonizing at times, but you won't go broke.
This is in sharp contrast to trying to short a top in the markets. People can (and did) go broke trying to short a top in the markets. |
