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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 309.36

+2.2%

Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (1130)	9/10/2001 2:22:02 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (1) of 95520

RtS - I'm not sure where CNN is getting its data (perhaps we don't want to know), but here is what I found: Price to Book (from Yahoo today) SFAM....0.56 MTSN....0.57 TGAL....0.91 CMOS....1.14 DPMI....1.24 ASYT....1.35 FSII....1.54 BRKS....1.56 EGLS....1.61 KLIC....1.73 UTEK....1.78 COHU....1.80 NANO....2.04 LTXX....2.08 VECO....2.13 ATMI....2.23 PRIA....2.30 PLAB....2.39 SMTL....2.64 PHTN....2.87 CYMI....2.90 TER.... 2.91 NVLS....2.97 LRCX....4.13 AMAT....4.22 HELX....4.67 ASML....4.81 KLAC....4.90 (WFR n/a) Average 2.42 This mean p/b level strongly suggests that most stocks in the group, and the sector as a whole, are approaching (or at) a bottom. Virtually all stocks have been brought down to bottom-type valuation levels. However, the bottom 1/4 of the list (the highest p/b's) is crowded with the large cap names. In my view, this has little to do with the 'leading edge' or 'demonstrated potential' of these companies (the vast majority of companies are well into developing Cu, 300mm and 0.15µ.sizing) but is solely a function of generic (and highly suspect) 'safe haven' buying by nervous investors. The final stage blowoff of this retracement may be when those stocks with reasonable valuations (p/b of ~2.5 and lower) stabilize or strengthen while the large caps (or any with a p/b over ~3.5) get trashed to more rational levels.

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