Hi MT,
Thanks for the thoughtful reply to my post. More than I deserved, being a mere messenger. <bg>
Re: The issue of accounting has become huge and is going to have to do one of two things. Either the most conservative procedures will be reinforced, or the reported results become largely irrelevant.
Results will continue to be largely irrelevant to those who are more inclined to TA. With my penchant for history, I've been trying to locate some information regarding the denoument of previous bear markets. Jim Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer was just interviewed on CNBC and he commented, astutely, that never before in the history of the bear markets have we had P/Es at bull market levels like they are today. The implications of this continuing excess are not clear, since it is unprecedented.
You may find Grant's musings in an op/ed piece at the Gray Lady yesterday to be somewhat interesting, though perhaps not entirely useful:
nytimes.com
Best, Ray :)
Note to KB - The Grant article contained the following which I think will tickle your Latin ear - The financial historian Max Winkler concluded his tale of the fantastic career of the swindler-financier Ivar Kreuger, the "Swedish match king," with the ancient epigram "Mundus vult decipi; ergo decipiatur": The world wants to be deceived; let it therefore be deceived. The Romans might have added, for financial context, that the world is most credulous during bull markets. Prosperity makes it gullible. |
