RE: "When will orders turn up"
It appears that in chips for wireless equipment at least, orders are turning up NOW. In this sector it appears that the strength is coming from countries like Korea, in spite of the "perilous" world economic climate. Merill linked RFMD's 30% sequential order improvement to design wins from Siemens, Samsung, Qualcomm and Nokia. A good deal of this demand for cell phones will come from abroad, and this demand will be most explosive in precisely those countries where the economic situation is most precarious, for it is often the case that connectivity there can be a life or death issue, e.g. telecom access at medical facilities in rural areas in Africa.
As a Corning manager pointed out at a recent Cowen confab, only 15% of world population has a telephone connection, 9% own a PC, 6% have internet access and 2% are in reach of a broadband connection. While penetration rates are obviously much higher in developed countries and only a relatively small segment of the population in developing countries can afford a cell phone, it is irrefutable that there is a tremendous built-up demand for connectivity in the developing world, and that for these people getting a telephone for the first time is a very empowering act, perhaps even more profound than your obtaining your first PC. Naturally, I am not talking here about Japanese schoolchildren doing wireless messaging with classmates instead of focusing on their lectures, but about ordinary people staying in touch with their families.
Just a thought.
Sam |
