SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: High Country Trader who wrote (8503)9/11/2001 2:21:33 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
As for the put/call ratios, one of my favorite patterns had been to expect a larger than average rise on triple witch expiration week if the preceding week had seen higher than normal CBOE index put buying. Better still if it had been the previous two weeks. Well, this pattern failed miserably at the June triple witch week. Next week is triple witch again and the put buying has definitely been heavy the past several days. So we are setting up again for historically what should a strong triple witch week. Then again, the index put/call ratios have never seen this type of bear market and most of the rules for overbought/oversold were based on bull market action

Gary- It may have failed in June, but the put volume has been bought with much more conviction since mid august as compared to activity in june and prior months. Typically, you see the CBOE Equity Index P/C ratio taper off into last four 1/2 hour snapshots into the bell below 1 down around .90 and this has not happened of late. A comparison of different market selloffs and corresponding P/C Ratios in the last year and compare to today which is no sell-off at all:

Equity/ Index/ Total Put Call Ratio Half Hourly CBOE Exchange Report 

         10/11/2000    03/14/2001   03/15/2001   09/10/2001

Time
        
9:00  AM    1.42         1.16         0.81        1.49
9:30  AM    1.09         1.11         0.89        1.58
10:00 AM    1.13         1.07         0.91        1.35
10:30 AM    1.09         1.02         0.81        1.29
11:00 AM    1.11         1.00         0.87        1.14
11:30 AM    1.05         0.99         0.89        1.10
12:00 PM    1.02         0.99         0.91        1.05
12:30 PM    0.99         0.99         0.91        1.12
1:00  PM    0.96         0.97         0.96        1.04
1:30  PM    0.95         0.95         0.95        1.05
2:00  PM    0.95         0.92         0.96        1.04 
2:30  PM    0.93         0.89         0.95        1.03
3:00  PM    0.91         0.90         0.96        1.01


Bottom line: I am hoping for the market to sh!t the bed in one of the next two trading days and reinforce the Bears conviction to buy even more puts in reckless orgy. I will be buying September calls pennies and nickels on the dollar that day if P/C ratios can repeat the kind of day we had today. I don't think it will be a June failed repeat but the potential for a huge melt-up squeeze play.

Best Regards, J.T.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News