>> doubt you'll find Russian trade in wheat is the prime cause or trigger of the great Depression.<<
I agree. But the collapse of the banking system was effect, not prime mover. Why did the banking system collapse? The reduction in international trade was also effect, not prime mover. Why was international trade reduced? Similarly, unemployment didn't "cause" the Great Depression, it was an effect.
Industrialization and mechanization didn't "cause" the Great Depression, but they were immensely important events going on for decades before, during and after, that transformed the economy of the world in a way that has to be included in the catalogue of causes. Countries which were not industrialized, e.g. countries as far apart as Chile and China, also experienced it. I think of industrialization as background - just as the aging of the Japanese and western populations are background. The effects are immense, but very slow. I am looking for the small sharp movements in the foreground. I'm not trying to catch waves, I am trying to catch the great white whale.
Call me Captain Ahab, or maybe Ishmael.-g-
Maybe I think about it the way I think about it from almost 20 years as a plaintiff's lawyer. You have to find the proximate cause, e.g., what caused the man's neck to break wasn't the window he hit his head on, and it wasn't the tree his car ran into, and it wasn't his car that ran into the tree, and it wasn't the other man's car that ran into his car, it was the other driver who was talking on his cell phone and not paying attention.
Everything gets added to the timeline. Any event could be the proverbial butterfly's wing that sets off the hurricane, or the cough that sets off the avalanche.
The most important events occurred before the banks collapsed . The Depression was already in full swing by summer, 1929. Major banks didn't start folding until late in 1930.
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What are the causes of the recession we are in now? |
