Any comments on this article and its implications for FSII, UTEK, TGAL, or others?
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The chip equipment industry is beginning to rebound after stumbling last year. New technology and increased demand are fueling the comeback. Chip equipment makers have moved from simply selling products to chipmakers to becoming an integral part of the manufacturing process. A few years ago, not many people had heard the slogan ''Intel Inside,'' which touts Santa Clara., Calif.-based Intel Corp.'s speedy processors. ''It's time we made sure people know we're inside of Intel,'' said Stanley Myers, president of Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), a 2,000-member international organization based in Mountain View, Calif. Myers recently discussed with IBD the equipment industry's comeback, as well as the move to 300-millimeter wafers, from which chips are cut.
IBD: How are equipment sales going? When will they pick up?
Myers: We think it's already happening. We think we'll be back to double-digit growth in '98 and '99. I think then we'll be back at a level that's really, in my mind, the true sustainable growth in our industry, which is in the 20% to 25% range.
Now with things like 300-millimeter (wafer technology) and other fabs coming on, we're likely to bounce ourselves, like we did before, well over that sustainable growth level. That then means there will be another correction, if you will, another adjustment that will come at sometime in the future.
IBD: What's fueling the upswing?
Myers: A lot of things. . . . It's being driven by new technologies, yield improvement, cost reduction, as well as (the move to) 300-millimeter wafers. New technologies certainly would be CMP (chemical mechanical processing) technology. That's a type of polishing (taking place) not on the raw sub-straight wafer, but polishing downstream after fabrication. It allows for the shrinking down to smaller line widths . . . because it's smoother. Then (there's the whole drive to) smaller and smaller line widths on the horizon. Whether you (build) 200-millimeter or 300- millimeter wafers, it still is a challenge for us and our customers, the chipmakers, to get to.
IBD: When could that next downturn occur?
Myers: I would say . . . we're talking (about sometime) past the turn of the century.
IBD: When do you expect chipmakers to use 300-millimeter wafers?
Myers: It's really taking off as we speak, in terms of equipment (test) site development at equipment houses and consortia. You're beginning to see sets of equipment tested and benchmarked. We really believe that calendar year '98 and '99 will be years of pilot lines.
IBD: What does 300 millimeter mean for the industry?
Myers: It's higher productivity. Device makers effectively get three-quarters more diameter of the surface area by going up to 300 millimeter. Hopefully what it means is you'll continue to get more memory (chips) for lower cost. That's really been the heartbeat of our industry. We've been able - through equipment, material and fabs - to continue to kick out more and more memory and come down a cost curve.
IBD: How difficult is it to develop equipment for .25-micron line widths? A human hair is 100 microns wide.
Myers: Every particle that's now accepted on a wafer (that is produced using) .5 micron or greater (line widths) is probably forbidden when you go down to the smaller line widths. I think it's related to cleanliness and flatness. And measuring equipment has to be developed to determine even what the wafer can take.
When you start coupling the technology challenges of smaller line widths with the challenges of larger diameter wafers like 300 millimeter, those two things are a huge technical challenge. Maybe it's the biggest industry transition in chip history.
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Copyright (c) 1997 Investors Business Daily, All rights reserved.
Investor's Business Daily - Computers & Technology (06/23/97)
Chip Gear Sales Are Revved Up By Wide Wafers
By Michele Hostetler |
