... sometimes, I wonder if I am stupid ... or just slow on the uptake ...
(1). It has been 35 hours since American Airlines flight # 11 impacted the North Tower of the World Trade Center.
(2). I have been reading almost everything written by Stephen Roach, Chief Economist and Director of Global Economic Analysis at Morgan Stanley for about two years ... three articles a week, every week. I read a lot more than Stephen Roach, but somehow, and from the beginning, he has articulated an analysis of macro and micro economic circumstances and conditions that always rang true to me.
Many have questioned his competence as he stood out on the proverbial limb compared to other respected forecasters.
... and it just hit me ... pow ...
(3). Mr Roach has repeatedly stated that serious recessions take place, almost always after economic, business and political conditions are layed out in such a way as to be an invitation to additional problems ... the establishment of a certain vulnerability, if you will, to an unknown external shock yet to happen. I can not stress how often and emphatically Stephen has said that.
(4). In 1990-1991, it was Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. In 2001, ..........
(5) I also noticed today that commentators and representatives of Wall Street are suggesting in both oblique and clearly stated opinions that American investors have an almost patriotic obligation not to sell stocks when the markets reopen. Do they believe that, or is it based on their own assessment and determination that massive selling is exactly what is going to happen?
I know what I think ... what do you think?
I do not know if Stephen Roach is even alive right now, as Morgan Stanley was the largest tenant in the World Trade Center, and I suspect that his office was located there. I hope not. I would feel better if I knew that he was home with his family as I write this.
Ken Wilson |
