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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: James Clarke who wrote (1399)6/21/1997 1:44:00 PM
From: Paul Senior   of 78748
 
James: I've used a formula to relate price/book to ROE to value point for many years. Sometimes it works. (not very effective with stocks that have very high ROE compared to very low book. (e.g. software companies). For an example of how it might go: if a company has a book of $10 and and an ROE of 10%, the question is what is the fair value of the company given its current price?
Fair value (model will determine) is about $10, so you know you want to pay not more than $10 for the stock. How about a stock with $10 book and 20% ROE? Well you know you are willing to pay more for this stock... how much more? Model might show fair value to be $20. How about crummy ROE of 6%? Well again, the model will here show fair value of about $6 (if book is $10, so company might be a buy at under $6. Of course as you point out, entering in point estimate for ROE can be a dangerous assumption. ROE's do fluctuate. For low ROE's one hopes management can do better, and for high ROE's one hope there is a sustainability. Paul
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