Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Stephen who wrote (18503)	9/13/2001 11:57:01 AM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (2) of 52237

Some contrarian reasons for being long/buying the dip are actually quite logical imho. 1)There are a large number of short positions, and in Europe shorts have been covering ...there seems to be a growing movement that being short is now unpatriotic 2)Funds I follow have been raising cash this last 6 weeks looking to buy back in the Sept/Oct period. This maybe too early ... but time is passing. 3)The immediate danger of being long stocks at this time was the chance of getting caught with an earnings warning. Well all those companies now have an 'excuse note' for a qtr or two ... and only time will show how analysts respond to the reports coming out and whether they upgrade on the basis that results cannot get any worse. This qtr will be the lowest point for earnings for a while.... and no matter what the drop off in future business... yr on yr comparisons are likely to improve. In fact even next qtr may show considerable growth tech earning growth due to deferred business ... 4)Greenspan and the rest of the central banks are at the pumps. That money has to go somewhere ... and some will find its way into stocks ...besides .. history has shown that when the red light starts flashing Greenspan errs on the side of over-reaction ... 5)One of the dangers I was afraid of was that there would be massive hedging of long positions in the forign markets. I suspect that a lot of this has already been done in Asia/Europe. They have already stabalised ... and if the US shows any sort of strength, those hedges may well be unwound boosting those markets. I could go on ....but I don't see a crash at this time - in fact, perverse as it maybe, the chances of a crash may have diminished with the tragic events that just occurred. Good luck & God bless everyone Regards Stephen

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