Like many of you I watched the horrible events unfold on the television Tuesday as they were happening. I spent almost all of that day and evening talking to people in person and on the phone about them. I guess that was my own way of dealing with it. And I also sent out an email to you about it. I realized when it was time to go to bed that I was emotionally exhausted and had trouble sleeping.
I still felt that way when I got up the next day and I knew that I would have to take the time to find out exactly what is going on and what is likely to happen as a result of this attack in the coming days and weeks. That’s how I make my living and what you read my stuff for. So I spent most of yesterday away from everything to give myself a chance to relax and clear my head. I figured that I had to do that in order to be able to go through the news reports and think about them in a calm manner.
The attack has changed the world. In the last century the only events, which had a similar wide reaching impact for our country, were Pearl Harbor, the dropping of the atomic bomb, and the murder JFK. After each event, Americans woke up to find themselves living in a different country. This was immediately clear after the first two events happened, but it took years for most people to realize how Kennedy’s murder altered the country. So many things flowed from it, including a disastrous war in Vietnam, Watergate and a widespread distrust of the government. Much of the impact of the terrorist attack is immediately apparent, but like the JFK murder, we won’t realize what all of it is for quite sometime.
This is the first big historical event of the 21st century. This might not be the most appropriate way to think about this now, with the rescue efforts and mourning in Washington and New York still happening, but we are forced to put this in some sort of perspective and make meaning out of it. I leave my earlier emails and some of your emails that I have quoted, to make a spiritual meaning out of it. For now I want make as informed speculations as I can to what it means for the country and the economy and try to figure out what is going to happen next.
At the moment there is uncertainty. The stock market is closed and no one knows for sure what will happen when it opens. More importantly, although all lines so far point to the Bin Laden operation, the Federal government has not yet identified the attackers and it is not clear how they will retaliate or if they will be successful in doing so. It is possible that more attacks could come. A story on the wires says that the Pakistani intelligence agency intercepted a Bin Laden communication that says that they are planning on trying to strike the White House.
One thing is clear. We are now in a state of war with terrorists. American complacency has been shattered. We are all Israelis now. Our relationship with the world has changed. And that is the big change that we are just now seeing the beginning of.
There will be no quick victory. The perpetrators will not be eliminated in an air strike. The individual terrorists who have so far been identified have been from Afghanistan, Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Whatever terrorist operation is behind this has planned ahead of time to protect itself from US retaliation and is undoubtedly in hiding and spread out. They are not in a single location.
Let us assume that it is Bin Laden’s group, which is behind this. Bin Laden has been on the FBI’s number one wanted list and tracked by western intelligence agencies for years. His organization is made up of cells, which, although united by doctrine, are capable of branching off on their own and acting independently. It is likely that he did not personally command this operation, but that one of these cells did. It could have gone underground, planned out the attack itself, and then emerged to carry it out. Bin Laden said that he was pleased with the attack, but didn’t have anything to do with it. In a strange way he may not be lying. Although responsible for it, he may not have known that it was going to happen. That would explain why our intelligence agencies didn’t detect it.
It also shows us the obstacles that the President will face in trying to destroy this operation. He can do a quick air strike, a sustained bombing campaign, maybe with troops, like in Iraq, or use the intelligence branches to assassinate individual terrorist leaders.
A quick air strike against terrorist camps may make the American people feel better and make the President to appear to be doing something, but they will have little impact. Even if Bin Laden were to be killed in such a strike his organization would continue.
The only way to cripple his operation would be to destroy his logistics and support and these come from governments, which provide him with a safe haven to operate in and the assistance of their intelligence agencies. Afghanistan is on that list and Iraq possibly is. Why do they like Bin Laden?
A little background. Bin Laden is from Saudi Arabia. He had a split with the Saudi royal family over the Iraq war and was kicked out of the country. He believes that the US troops in Saudi Arabia are a desecration to religious sites in the country. He is also opposed to the existence of Israel. He wants the US out of Saudi Arabia. That is why he launched a terrorist bombing against troops there several years ago and attacked the U.S. Cole last year. It is also why he has connections to Iraq.
During the 1980s Bin Laden supported the Afghan Taliban against its war of independence against the Soviet Union. Most of the Taliban was trained in Pakistan by Pakistani intelligence. The CIA provided them with money and so did Bin Laden. Bin Laden continues to do so and the latter fact is why he is in their country.
The Taliban is not in total control of Afghanistan. A rebel army called the Northern Alliance has been waging war against them. They were allied with the old Soviet forces during the 1980s and Russia still supports them. I assume the US does also.
I think it is likely that the US will find itself working with Russia to overthrow the Taliban. I don’t think we’ll have a full-fledged war against them involving ground forces. More likely we’ll support the Northern Alliance faction and carry out bombing attacks against the country. If we discover that Iraq was involved then there may be another full scale war against them. So as you see you are looking at a protracted effort that will take a long time. No quick resolution.
The US will also beef up its intelligence agencies and wage a covert war against terrorism that will involve infiltrating terrorist groups and assassinating their leaders. Both of these will require efforts to work together with foreign nations. They will want something in return. Missile defense, which has very little military value and none against terrorists, will take a back seat. These are my best speculations at the moment.
One must wonder what we will have to do in this country to defend against any future terrorist attacks. How much freedom will be sacrificed for security? How will this change our lives? Questions that we don’t know how to answer now.
What we saw Tuesday was just the beginning. |
