I would like to know, for starters...
Complete knowledge of all short positions in insurance stocks. Specifically, Lloyds and Allianz. While we receive our information about short interest q monthly, I assure you that this information can be ascertained (with effort) in a much more timely fashion. That is the information we would need. These accounts would need to be examined for trading patterns. Have they correctly been long oil during certain politicaly driven rallies? Does their short position in insurance stocks seem unusualy well timed? After the short was covered, was the account kept open, or was it closed? If closed, where did the funds go?
New OI in gold. Who accounted for new OI long gold? All accounts would need to be known. The world gold market is not big, the question is weeding out the noise from the many, many trades. Would the position be taken early (as in weeks ago) or late, and in the morning of (in HK trading for ex). Did one account simultaneously short usd, and go long oil and gold? The odds begin to decrease that that is from chance alone.
We suspect terrorism is motivated by religious zeal, and this is certainly true for those who committ suicide. No political or religious group has claimed responsibility, and there are no demands or threats preceeding or following. The timing of the attack did not correspond with any religious holiday or with any recent affront, the timing of the attack came after the markets had suffered some of their biggest weekly declines this year and the s&p, DJIA, and Nikkei were testing lows - almost to the day. In fact, the precipitant for the attack may have been that the markets may have working up the nerve to successfuly bounce off these lows.
So while it seems clear that these acts of terrorism may have been perpetrated by zealots, I suspect the group orchestrating them was driven by greed. Perhaps the profit will be used for further terrorism, and this terrorism for further revenue. The group orchestrating this attack suceeded at controlling the global financial market, if only for a few days. The profit potential in the futures market from a correctly positioned trade that has 0% risk is enormous. No, it's mindboggling. |
